Relocate to Florida in 2 to 7 years

CurrentSea

CurrentSea

Active member
Member
Joined
Sep 23, 2002
RO Number
10265
Messages
9,958
Pascal says this forum does not have enough activity so I figured I would ask a question.

With the downturn in the housing market I am wondering if now is a good time to invest in some Florida real estate? What I would want is a condo with a marina. Until I relocate, I would rent both the condo and the boat slip if I had one. Admiral and I figure we have anywhere from 2 to 7 years before we may be interested in relocating. Place would have to allow pets.

Thanks
 
the good news is that the market will likely bottom within the next two years providing a buying opportunity. Prices now have retreated to 2004 levels so you have a rare opportunity to go back in time. It will likely take a number of years (5++???) for prices to recover to 2006 levels however.
The very bad news is that zillions of homes and condos are being offered for rent with many remaining empty. The tenants are seriously in the drivers seat and demanding everything for free and low rents. Tenants are also less credit worthy than in past because they are likely the people that got into trouble with the junk mortgages that prompted the current mess.
IMO you will be lucky to cover taxes and insurance but not any mortgage payments from rents with considerable vacancy allowances needed.. Without any foreseeable appreciation in the next years it will take a long time to make up for several years of negative cash flow. This could be a good time to buy if you plan to move in but not for your program. Search for vulture condos to get a true look at the scale of the problem.
I cant think of a worse time for your plan since 1988.
 
PS It is only recent history that shows a steady increase in condo prices. For long periods condos and even houses did not appreciate. The recent cycle is unlikely to be repeated for 20 years or so. IMO there is no hurry.
 
B., what's a vulture condo? I would be interested in your comments, if any, re Old Naples-south of Neapolitan west of Tamiami (not Marco, N.Naples, Pelican Bay, etc.). I rent a condo there every March and spend the month enjoying the area. Every now and again I think about spending more time there, and have even looked at a couple of houses. Thanks.
PS An investment group that I am NOT a member of "parked" some money in some condos east of Tamiami around the post office on Goodlette about four years ago. They still are in that investment. They have taken a haircut last I heard.
 
you may want to wait a little longer. In Miami-dade, there are about 10k condo unit being built... not counting the thousands more that have been planned but will not be built. yes, you read that right... about 10k units. estimates and numbers vary but that's about right...

there are also thousands of existing unit on the market, including foreclosures. Some buildings (incl. luxury waterfront) have 10 even 20% of units in foreclosures, leaving big dents in the association budget since the banks dont' have to pay maintenance fees after a few months...

Problem with renting is that there are also a lot of units up for rent... as bruce said, renting will cover taxes, insurance and maintenance but not the mortgage... not even the interest.

take the average $350k condo in a good building. $7k taxes, $9k maintenance fees that's 16k a year or $1300/1400 a month. that unit will rent for around $1600 to $1900 right now... if it's empty only 2 months... well you do the math.

mortgage interest and/or lost investement income... at even just 5%...taht's almost $1500 a month... so that $350k condo costs you close to $3000 a month.

also many building don't allow any lease of under 1 year, some allow 6 month but one year is pretty common in the nice buildings. problem is that in many cases, if your tenant break the lease after 6 months, the association will not let you rent it again... so even if you keep a month safety deposit, you're still out 3 or 4 months with an empty unit.

At this point you're better off waiting a little longer to see where the market is headed.
 
here is an interesting article on todays paper about a leading developper setting up a "vulture" fund to buy properties, mostly condos, betting on an upturn...

http://www.miamiherald.com/top_stories/story/391295.html

doens't mean that the bottom is near though... it could be a PR move. if you listen to what developpers and realtors tell reporters, it's all fine... people are closing on reserved units and it's a beautfiul day in so fl. yeah, right.
 
''I strongly believe that Miami real estate is undervalued,'' Perez said. ``Three years from now, people will look back and be amazed.

Yea right, as long as he is gambling with some elses money he can be certain to not loose.
 
I had been wanting a place in the Citrus Isle area of Ft. Lauderdale or small condo with a slip for some time. But never did buy and I'm glad I didn't. The prices have really come down. What hurts me in buying a second home in South Florida is the peoperty taxes and insurance. Buzz
 
well, if you get a condo in a good building and install shutters, you can consider not getting windstorm. it depends on teh building... some smaller buildings are pretty shabby but modern concrete highrise are as good as it gets with shutters.

taxes are the problem along with condo association fees. It's amazing to see how most buildings arent' well managed and expenses and costs overruns would make a US congressman proud.
 
I work in the insurance industry SE Florida and deal with houses and condos daily. The price for purchase is good right now especially if interested in a condo. I heard 13,000 current construction unsold units (condo's) to be on the market by 2009 Pascal. The problem is and will be taxes and insurance. No relief in sight no matter what Charlie Christ says on television.
 
as long as you have lots of Currentsea in yhour bank you should be fine down here - welcome
 
Naples was a high flyer so I dont see any reason why it is different than elsewhere in FL.
 
well, when it comes to taxes, there is some relief in sight if the plan passes next week. I think that being able to transfert you current homestead savings will allow people to get back in the real estate market.

Right now, someone who has owned their home for 5 to 10 years can't move or even downsize because their taxes will instantly double. Allowing them to transfer that lower assessed value on to a new home will allow them to move... it shoudl help.

but obviously it doens't help non residents or new comers.
 
Left Naples 5 yrs ago because it was full of seasonal snowbirds that caused prices, traffic and lines for dinning to be out of control. Marinas gone to big money developers, the wealthy along Naples bay continue to fight for no wake zones which would make a run to the gulf a hr run. Teachers, law enforcement etc are leaving in droves because of the cost of living in Naples. The joke is with everyone leaving who is going wait tables, clean hotel rooms etc they are all leaving. I dont mean to dog Naples but living there for 15 yrs the city has turned into non boating friendly town. If your into rich snooty people that think you owe them everything go for it. We moved to a sleepy water front community known as Punta Gorda/Charlotte Harbor a boater friendly community that has bounced back from Charley that is up and coming without the glitter and glitz of Naples.
 
You are in a good position. Wait, keep up on local conditions in whatever area you want. Taxes and Insurance are giving us all a sleigh ride. Might be settled in a couple of years. No sooner. There will be bargains then. Avoid long period of absentee ownership.
 
Guess I will wait until I am ready.
What about just buying land, if there is any left.
Could buy in a community with a marina and hang on to it, but I think some places have
a time limit where you have to build.
 
A 101, there is a lot of truth in your comments. Naples doesn't seem very boater friendly. I'm sure there are many fewer slips then there once were. I have boating friends that live in Punta Gorda so am familiar with that area as well.
I was hoping that someone would comment specifically on current real estate values and sales in Old Naples. CurrentSea's original question was is this a good time to invest.
 
The admiral and I have figured that we really did mean our first move to FL, and have decided that we'll try it again in 1-2 years, given how drastically the situation has changed down there. I'm just glad I had the "gut feeling" to realize something was off when we moved there at the start of 2006, and we didn't buy and eventually decided we just couldn't afford the lifestyle we wanted there. Some of the units we were looking at in newer condos are being offered not at 250k, down from 375k or so when we almost bought. And there's about 50% of them available! In any case, having looked at properties in the Tampa area thoroughly through 2006 and then having made a few trips since, I have to say the drop has been DRAMATIC! Just absolutely mind blowing incredible. Everyone is BEGGING us to just "make an offer" and "see what happens". However, given the amount of availability, I'm waiting until we're ready to move, since I don't want to hold any property there without being able to rent it (it seems like everything's available for rent also)...

In any case, I'm on the waiting list for a slip at the Saint Petersburg marina :-) ;-)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top