Do you trust small craft advisory I'm going out sometimes when there's an advisory the water has been fine. What are your thoughts I have a friend that wants to go out tomorrow on the boat but there is a small craft advisory what should I do
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Small craft advisory
- Thread starter Waynepj4
- Start date
BayAreaBoater
Member
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2009
- RO Number
- 31155
- Messages
- 408
No one can (or should) tell you what to do.
I've been boating the Delta since '67 and out into the Pacific since '85. I'm no expert, but I pretty much know when to continue with a planned trip and when not to. And I would be the first to turn around and cancel a trip if the conditions justified it. I don't want to make the evening news if you know what I mean...
They don't call it a small craft advisory for nothing, or just to piss people off.
But with that being said, as you have noticed, they can be inaccurate with their "forecasts" or guesses as I like to call them, just as much as the nightly news' (so-called) weather forecasters. I'm sure they are erring on the side of caution, and overall, I would prefer it that way, but they are rarely 100% accurate.
It's like fishing. They don't call it catching, they call it fishing.
If I have a trip planned, I go for it. I don't let just a forecasted SCA or the tide cancel my trip. But at the same time, I'm not related to Evil Kneivel (sp) and I value my life and the lives of my passengers as well as my boats.
The way that I approach a trip is to make my first decision once at the dock. Then once I clear the protected water. Then once again as I get well underway. I'm sure you get the point... It's not just one decision. It's a constant measure of the circumstances.
Just as it should be, a trip of any sort should rely on your experience, your boats capability, your passengers comfort level, your itinerary, and the outside sources of information like weather forecasts, current observations, talking with fellow boaters and listening to the radio for chatter regarding the conditions.
Good luck!
I've been boating the Delta since '67 and out into the Pacific since '85. I'm no expert, but I pretty much know when to continue with a planned trip and when not to. And I would be the first to turn around and cancel a trip if the conditions justified it. I don't want to make the evening news if you know what I mean...
They don't call it a small craft advisory for nothing, or just to piss people off.
But with that being said, as you have noticed, they can be inaccurate with their "forecasts" or guesses as I like to call them, just as much as the nightly news' (so-called) weather forecasters. I'm sure they are erring on the side of caution, and overall, I would prefer it that way, but they are rarely 100% accurate.
It's like fishing. They don't call it catching, they call it fishing.
If I have a trip planned, I go for it. I don't let just a forecasted SCA or the tide cancel my trip. But at the same time, I'm not related to Evil Kneivel (sp) and I value my life and the lives of my passengers as well as my boats.
The way that I approach a trip is to make my first decision once at the dock. Then once I clear the protected water. Then once again as I get well underway. I'm sure you get the point... It's not just one decision. It's a constant measure of the circumstances.
Just as it should be, a trip of any sort should rely on your experience, your boats capability, your passengers comfort level, your itinerary, and the outside sources of information like weather forecasts, current observations, talking with fellow boaters and listening to the radio for chatter regarding the conditions.
Good luck!
- Joined
- Apr 22, 2005
- RO Number
- 17103
- Messages
- 408
Personally, I would always err on the side of caution. If there's an advisory I would stay in port or certainly not venture out too far. Too much can go wrong very quickly!
BTW, welcome back - haven't heard from you in quite a while!
BTW, welcome back - haven't heard from you in quite a while!
Often the current will make a big difference in how the winds effect the water. If I have to travel against the current and the wind, a SCA usually means canceling or delaying my trip. On the other hand, wind and current going in the same direction equals pretty smooth waters---til the tide turns! I also took docking in the conditions into consideration. Sometimes the boat & skipper can handle the conditions underway, but docking with conditions working against you can be problematic.
I think the most important thing is to be willing to change your mind! It may mean disappointing a guest or spending a night away from home port, but the safety of the souls on board and the comfort of the guests must come first!
I'll be interested in hearing your decision and why as well as the results. A good way for us "armchair captains" to learn more.
I think the most important thing is to be willing to change your mind! It may mean disappointing a guest or spending a night away from home port, but the safety of the souls on board and the comfort of the guests must come first!
I'll be interested in hearing your decision and why as well as the results. A good way for us "armchair captains" to learn more.
I recently went to one of the evening talks given at Corinthian YC, the topic, weather, from one of NOAA's own. The question was asked, why are the forecasts often so differnet than what I found out there?
Answer: The forecast is done is sections, somewhere in that section will be exactly what we predicted.
So extrapolating, if you look at sailflow.com for the Central Bay current condition you may se 20k off Point Blunt, and10 around Red Rock, and around the Bay Bridge. Get a free membership of sailflow and watch what goes on in main bay. With 15k off Point Blunt, you will often find that there is a counterclockwise wind in San Pablo Bay and a clockwise flow into south bay. So you could find three sailors, spinnakers flying going dead down wind, one in Main Bay east bound, one south bay south bound and one in San Pablo bay north bound.
As the wind picks up over Pt Blunt to 20+ those curves north and south start to straighten out, until eventually the wind is a westerly throughout the bay area.
Add this wind diagram from sailflow to their current prediction and think about the effective southerly in San Pablo with a strong ebb. What does opposing wind and current do to the small boat? Then as the wind becomes more westerly, at right angles to either the ebb of flood, you might have wished to stay home. I know I have.
FYI weatherunderground has just joined in with Active Captain to develop a sailors forecast. From their main page look for the Travel & Activities tab, select Marine & boating, enter the zip code you are interested in, or click your region on the map. There is not only the weather forecast, but tides and current, max flood/ebb, all on one page. I do hope they improve the site as time goes on, but its pretty good.
Answer: The forecast is done is sections, somewhere in that section will be exactly what we predicted.
So extrapolating, if you look at sailflow.com for the Central Bay current condition you may se 20k off Point Blunt, and10 around Red Rock, and around the Bay Bridge. Get a free membership of sailflow and watch what goes on in main bay. With 15k off Point Blunt, you will often find that there is a counterclockwise wind in San Pablo Bay and a clockwise flow into south bay. So you could find three sailors, spinnakers flying going dead down wind, one in Main Bay east bound, one south bay south bound and one in San Pablo bay north bound.
As the wind picks up over Pt Blunt to 20+ those curves north and south start to straighten out, until eventually the wind is a westerly throughout the bay area.
Add this wind diagram from sailflow to their current prediction and think about the effective southerly in San Pablo with a strong ebb. What does opposing wind and current do to the small boat? Then as the wind becomes more westerly, at right angles to either the ebb of flood, you might have wished to stay home. I know I have.
FYI weatherunderground has just joined in with Active Captain to develop a sailors forecast. From their main page look for the Travel & Activities tab, select Marine & boating, enter the zip code you are interested in, or click your region on the map. There is not only the weather forecast, but tides and current, max flood/ebb, all on one page. I do hope they improve the site as time goes on, but its pretty good.