RJ
Points learned in diagnosing leaks (I know this sounds painfully methodical, but in the end it save me frustration and time). Print it off for a checklist..
Step 1) In the Spring when she is bone dry (I blow out my water lines each fall), do not hook up any water or AC for the first couple of weeks. Did this a few years back after sealing everything above and below the water line, cleaning out all the window track drains, and repacking with GFO that winter. She was dry for many weeks. This indicates no External intrusion (windows, through hull joints, hawes drain, etc.) Fix anything you find, dry her up again, revalidate solution works.
Step 2) Turn on the AC and run it a few days. Fix, dry, retest, and move on to next steps.
Step 3) Add water. First through the dock pressurized waterline input only (don't cycle any heads or use any sinks/showers draining to sumps yet). I found multiple plumbing leaks, usually at T-fittings that cracked over time (replaced with PEX). Second, fill your water tanks and look again. I found a small crack in one (easy to fix). Third, fill the sumps and check for leaks. Finally, cycle the heads and check again, particularly around your waste tanks (I found a small leak developing in the mid cabin tank and replaced it).
RJ
I had a "dry boat" for a couple years. I now have water coming from somewhere into that front bilge, and like you am assembling facts to paint the picture for root cause(s).
Fact 1) a fairly significant amount when it does show up. This indicates to me that a leak stream would have to accumulate water from larger surface areas (like running down a rode, down a window thru a track, down the rub rail into an access hole, or down an exterior panel into an open gap on a port window).
Fact 2) I noticed "dirty" sediment in the water(not waste tank type). Like stuff that accumulates in window tracks, port window gaps, on rodes, and behind rub rails.
Fact 3) the leak seems to correlate with rainfalls, but not proven (yet).
My next actions (based on self motivation and the facts):
-Window tracks have not been cleaned for some time. Yours should be like mine and those fwd most tracks are by design nasty at growing "stuff" that plugs drains (I like easiest jobs first)
-Ports are due for a recheck on hardware tightening, and a bead of sealer (1/2 a day job, not too difficult)
-First I'll throw some paper towels into the rode locker and see what happens. If that turns up wet, I will temporarily disconnect my anchor rode when not using to break the potential leak path (repeat towels and see what happens). Finally, investigate where the bottom end drains to (just to be sure)
-I did replace the SS rub rails, requiring some new hole drilling. It is unlikely this amount of water could leak between a screw hole/screw on a vertical face - not a high physical probability. But I did not apply sealer behind the rubber when reattaching it. Will need to probe here if all else fails (This is a job - leaving this for "project season").
Regarding your comments:
-leaking fresh water pipe? You never know when these might show up on older boats like ours. For me, this would mean "clear bilge water" (no sediment unless flowing thru a dirty area). Definitely worth investigating (now for the obvious, or in the spring when dry for the tougher finds)
-leaking black water hose? I don't think this is it either. I find the water gets stinky from sitting in the heat when she's closed up for the week. (and my waste tanks are still empty)
-water moving forward from engine room? Doubtful, even though repacking should be on your winter list (ZERO packing leaks for me now after GFO). I don't know of any limber holes connecting front to mid bilge areas so I doubt that's your front bilge issue. (Mid to rear bilges do connect via limber holes on mine - temporarily throw in some plugs to isolate them until you know what's going on)
-coming in from the lake through the hull? Not likely unless a through hull below your water line is leaking. I do have a fitting on the Port side where the old waste discharge hole was. You could check that one out if you have it too. Make sure there are no others (you have a different model and year).
1 HEADS UP...
If you have those factory flat flush chrome air vents on the side of your Carver (just below the rub rail) they leak. Rain water flows over the rub rails, and down the side, into these flat vents. I had to replace both head fans because they filled with water over time and drowned. Particularly the one directly beneath your boarding access point where the deck water runs off (big leak intrusion point). Replace those flat syle with a Louvered vent style to resolve this leak path.
Best of Luck RJ! Let us know what you find. (I will too)
Don