Frankenstorm

Looks like there's no via media here. Smolder out around NJ, or merge with those other two systems and steamroll the Cape and Islands. That eastbound front intercepts it, this could make Bob and Gloria seem like fishspinners.
 
Boat's on the trailer at the marina. Definitely expecting flooding. If this picks up and bullseyes Philly like some models are hinting at flooding could reach the "positively stupid" level. With that in mind, I'm toying with the idea of deploying the boat's anchor under one of the parking lot cement blocks. At higher high tide we get 6-8 inches of water in the yard. Not sure how much this "event" could bring, and not sure how much it would take to start floating the trailer. I know the boat will float in 21-18 inches of water and it sits about 2 foot off the ground on the trailer. In my mind that means that my boat and trailer will be floating if we get a 3' storm surge. Does that sound like reasonable logic? Does putting out an anchor on dry land sound like over-kill? I don't mind getting laughed at, but if its a totally stupid idea that's another story.
 
Putting out the anchor is a great idea. Three feet is certainly possible to float your boat
 
If you're thinking your boat might float on the trailer, don't forget to put the plug in and make sure the bilge pump(s) will work so the rain doesn't fill the cockpit.
 
Since it is on a trailer, can you tow it to higher ground?

Already starting to ramp up here in Morehead City NC. Blowing a steady 20 and gusty. Forecast to get to mid thirtys later and about 40's tomorrow. High tides tonight and tomorrow should be interesting.
 
Not sure I would put the anchor out. If it does float and the anchor holds your boat it is going to be destroyed by everything else not tied down that floats into it. I would rather have the boat totaled and deal with insurance for a replacement than get it back heavily damaged and try and get it fixed. Just my opinion.
Al
 
The inlet problems will change, perhaps a new inlet near Gilgo or Atlantique and Westhapton.

B
 
Mother nature wants to open an inlet at gilgo. Be interesting to see what happens. There is no Robert Moses around anymore,and the state is broke. That might be the end of ocean parkway for some time if it breaks through.
 
I am surprised that any south shore property south of rt 27a in above flood elevation. even if the house is elevated it will be an island. I lived mear Bergan Pt. and can confirm that the streets flooded regularly with Fall storms.
 
The base flood elevation for my street is 6ft. That's about 5ft up the telephone pole. I think they have gone slightly overboard with that number but it is what it is. They say the be BFE is based on a 100yr flood. If it ever got that high sunrise highway would be under water. The high tide mark for Irene was just about the same as it was for Gloria, on my street. The water was still about 5ft lower than the BFE. I raised the house to the BFE so the tides don't really concern me. Now I worry about the wind because I have nothing shielding me.
 
You can go to Floodsmart.gov and punch in address. It tells you if you are in flood zone, and what zone. Good tool for someone looking to buy by the coast.
 
quote:
Originally posted by pdecat

I am surprised that any south shore property south of rt 27a in above flood elevation. even if the house is elevated it will be an island. I lived mear Bergan Pt. and can confirm that the streets flooded regularly with Fall storms.

Click to expand...
,Bruce

The announced that most people south of sunrise and north of 25A may have to evacuate. We just got an automated call from LIPA stating that the town of Huntington may be without power for 3 days and to prepare
 
I was just looking at that surge map. It's important to read the text at the bottom:

"This graphic shows storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 10 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days."

Here again, this is not a forecast. It's a maybe. In this area it shows maybe a 5 foot surge at the ocean. We already have 4 foot tides on the ocean and they translate to 1.5 feet in the bay.

But newscasters don't read fine print and neither do politicians so they'll scare a bunch of people.

This is just not the inundation event. Maybe we get one some day, not this one.

My main concern is how long it blows out of the east, how many tide cycles we get water pushing in. That will cause the tide to ratchet up.

Bruce, you have to be kidding. In most areas there is flooding in streets way down near the bay, well south of Merrick Rd. Yes my house has been an island a few times, but it is an island surrounded by 6 inches of water in the street that you can drive through if so inclined. That stuff about south of Sunrise, that's from a cat 3-5 that blows over the barrier island. Unless this thing significantly changes course, it's a cat 0 around here.

I will NOT be evacuating, though I have no doubt they will send cars with speakers playing a message telling people to.

Even the houses that do flood - the people shut off the power and go upstairs to bed. I know several who did so in Irene. One friend of mine has pictures of him running a radio controlled boat around his living room. It's a foot of water. It leaves quickly. It doesn't have alligators in it. What is it people think will happen?
 
We moved over to a much better protected marina, Minnesceongo Yacht Club. They are great and I feel much better with the boat here. Still hoping for the best...
 
The surge forecast looks worse today...

at201218_surge.gif
 
Note on this graphic, there is a 10% chance these levels could be exceeded. This storm is a whole different animal from those of the past.
In the past I have joked about storms being media hype. I'm not going there with this one! Part of the reason for that is we have subscribed to a respected forecaster who is very concerned.
 
Ron:

That six inches of water is probably just from a fall storm with high tides. If this storm continues its current projected land fall in south NJ then LI is in the high wind side and the prediction is for a long period of southerly winds. Under normal conditions the south bay flooding is from water pushed to the shore from the bay. There probably isnt enough water in the bay itself to flood very far inland. However if you add the several inches of rain flowing to the south of the island that increases the flooding. Then the big IF, if the storm is strong enough and lasts long enough to significantly overtop the barrier islands then there is a lot more water in the bay for flooding.

This storm has a very big a wind field so it will effect the coastal areas for a much longer time than previous storms to be considered similar to previous experiences. If the windis strong enough in storms it often seems that there is no low tide each high seems to build a bit on the last high while the low is hardly noticeable. Personally I never liked driving my cars through salt water flooded streets.

It is surprising to me that so much of the north shore is being warned about flooding. All I can guess is that heavy storm run off to the low areas is expected to butt up against a very flooded LI sound. Flooding the sound with feet of water is going to take a significant amount of time and a whole lot of water.

Andy, if there are any accounts on the Tampa area that need an emergency visit, let me know. :)

All I can say to my friends in NY is plan for the worst and hope for the best or come south for a visit.
 
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